TITLE
SUMMARY
OF COVID-19 FORECASTS PRODUCED IN THE SOFTWARE R FOR CANADA FROM MAY 10 TO JULY
31, 2020
CHAPTER
5
JULY
15 TO JULY 31
BY:
PATRICK STEPHENSON, M.SC.
AUGUST
1, 2020
This report is a compilation of my Facebook historical daily Forecasts
of new cases and deaths in Canada in real-time from information available in
the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Research and data: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana
Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, and
Max Roser. Web development: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov,
Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, and Jason Crawford.
Chapter 1 of this report provides a summary on the
daily Forecasts of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Canada produced in
the software R from JUNE 30 TO JULY 14. We decided to temporarily skip
publication of Chapter 2 to 4 and publish more recent data in Chapter 5 which
runs from JULY 15 TO JULY 31. We essentially explored two conventional
Time-series models available from the library 'forecast' in R:
preferentially HoltWinters and alternatively ARIMA. Chapters 2 to 4 covering
the Time-series from May 10 to June 29 to come.
May the reader be indulgent. New data is extremely important when making
projections such as these. That’s why we update our models daily based on the
new Time-series data we receive. Please consult our Facebook page for more
recent daily Forecasts: https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 . Projections
using today’s data is much more valuable than projections from 2-3 days ago.
Our ambition to produce COVID-19 daily Forecasts using R for 4 Countries:
Canada, USA, Brazil and Haiti has proven to be challenging given the effort
required to fully process, review, and vet large amounts of Time-series data
alongside implementing Time-series models updates. While our Forecast
performance to date has been over 95% for Canada, the actual performance
results may differ from those projected. Please read the Disclaimer at the
bottom of the page.
Ce rapport
est une compilation de mes prévisions quotidiennes historiques sur Facebook de
nouveaux cas et décès au Canada en temps réel à partir des informations dans
les series chronologiques disponibles sur Coronavirus Pandemic
(COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Recherches et
données: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana
Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino et
Max Roser Développement Web: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov,
Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, et Jason Crawford.
Le chapitre 1 de ce rapport présente un résumé des prévisions quotidiennes des cas confirmés de COVID-19 et des décès au Canada produits dans le logiciel R du 30 JUIN AU 14 JUILLET. Nous avons décidé de sauter temporairement la publication des chapitres 2 à 4 et de publier des données plus récentes dans le chapitre 5 qui se déroule du 15 AU 31 JUILLET. Nous avons essentiellement exploré deux modèles de séries chronologiques classiques disponibles dans la bibliothèque 'forecast’ de R : préférentiellement HoltWinters et alternativement ARIMA. Les Chapitres 2 à 4 couvrant la série chronologique du 10 mai au 29 juin sont à venir.
Que le
lecteur soit indulgent. Les nouvelles données sont extrêmement importantes lors
de la réalisation de telles projections. C’est pourquoi nous mettons à jour
notre modèle quotidiennement en fonction des nouvelles données chronologiques
que nous recevons. Veuillez consulter notre page Facebook pour des prévisions
quotidiennes plus récentes:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 Les projections utilisant
les données d'aujourd'hui sont bien plus précieuses que les projections d'il y
a 2 ou 3 jours. Notre ambition de produire des prévisions quotidiennes COVID-19
en utilisant R pour 4 pays: le Canada, les États-Unis, le Brésil et Haïti s'est
avérée difficile étant donné l'effort requis pour traiter, examiner et
contrôler de grandes quantités de données chronologiques tout en mettant en
œuvre des mises à jour des modèles de série chronologiques. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions pour le Canada à ce
jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de
ceux projetés. SVP lire l’Avis de non-responsabilité au bas de la page.
.
Data Source: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data
THIS PAGE IS IN
CONSTRUCTION
____________________________________________________________________________________
The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for July 31 in Canada is up to 12 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 30 Forecast [ 0 and 49]. The New Forecast for August 1 : Between 0 and 50 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to 329 in Canada on July 31, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 30 Forecast [133 and 854]. New Forecast for August 1 Between 78 and 798 new cases with 95% confidence. The model no longer projects a slight upward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 30 in Canada is down to 5 after "Zero Deaths"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 29 Forecast [ 0 and 49]. The New Forecast for July 31 : Between 0 and 49
new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are up to 476
in Canada on July 30, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on
July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 29 Forecast [134 and 857].
New Forecast for July 31 Between 133 and 854 new cases with 95% confidence. The
model still projects a slight upward trajectory
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 29 in Canada is back to double digits, it's steady at
11 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is
well within the limits of our July 28 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast
for July 30 : Between 0 and 49 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to
383 in Canada on July 29, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 28 Forecast [181
and 905]. New Forecast for July 30: Between 134 and 857 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 28 in Canada is back to double digits, it's up to 11
after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is
well within the limits of our July 27 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast
for July 29 : Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are
drastically up to 699 in Canada on July 28, after "Zero Case"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 27 Forecast [87 and 809]. New Forecast for July 29: Between 181 and 905
new cases with 95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward
trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 27 in Canada is up to 5 after "Zero Deaths"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 26 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for July 28 : Between 0 and 47
new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are steady at
355 in Canada on July 27, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 26 Forecast [132
and 855]. New Forecast for July 28: Between 87 and 809 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 26 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero Deaths"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 25 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for July 27 : Between 0 and 47
new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to
350 in Canada on July 26, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time
on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 25 Forecast [ 195 and
917]. New Forecast for July 27: Between 132 and 855 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 25 in Canada is up to 7 after "Zero Deaths"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 24 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for July 26 : Between 0 and 48 new
Deaths with 95% confidence.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 24 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero Deaths"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 23 Forecast [ 0 and 49]. The New Forecast for July 24 : Between 0 and 48
new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are up to 534
in Canada on July 25, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on
July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 24 Forecast [ 185 and 909].
New Forecast for July 26: Between 195 and 917 new cases with 95% confidence.
The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
Covid-19 New cases are
down to 432 in Canada on July 24, after "Zero Case" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 23 Forecast
[ 222 and 947]. New Forecast for July 25: Between 185 and 909 new cases with
95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for July 23 in Canada is up to 8 after "Zero Deaths"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 22 Forecast [ 0 and 49]. The New Forecast for July 24 : Between 0 and 49
new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to
543 in Canada on July 23, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 22 Forecast [ 213
and 940]. New Forecast for July 24: Between 222 and 947 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory.
The reported number of
Covid-19 related deaths for July 22 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero
Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. The New Forecast for July
23 : Between 0 and 49 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to
571 in Canada on July 22, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time
on July 19. This is well within the limits of our July 21 Forecast [ 184 and
913]. New Forecast for July 23: Between 213 and 940 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory
The reported number of
deaths for July 21 is down to 6 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July
2. The New Forecast for July 22 : Between 0 and 51 new Deaths with 95%
confidence.
New cases are up to 775 in Canada
on July 21, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19.
This is barely above the limits of our July 20 Forecast [ 45 and 768]. New
Forecast for July 22: Between 184 and 913 new cases with 95% confidence. The
model projects a slight upward trajectory
New
cases are drastically up to 680 in Canada on July 20, after "Zero
Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is above the limits of
our July 19 Forecast [ 0 and 614]. New Forecast for July 21: Between 45 and
768. new cases with 95% confidence. The model now projects a slight upward
trajectory.
Canada knows second "Zero Deaths" day in July. The reported number of deaths for July 19 is down to 0 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 18 Forecast [ 0 and 54]. The New Forecast for July 20 : Between 0 and 51 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Unexpectedly, Canada knows "Zero
Case" for a second time. New cases are drastically down to 0 in Canada on
July 19, after "Zero Case" occurred on July 2. This is below the
limits of our July 18 Forecast [47 and 755]. New Forecast for July 20: Between
0 and 614 new cases with 95% confidence. The model now projects a slight
downward trajectory.
New Deaths are back to double digits territory
in Canada. The reported number of deaths for July 18 is down to 12 after
"Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of
our July 17 Forecast [ 0 and 54]. The New Forecast for July 19 : Between 0 and
54 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New cases are down to 405 in Canada on July 18,
after "Zero Case" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits
of our July 17 Forecast [34 and 744]. New Forecast for July 19: Between 47 and
755 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to project a slight
upward trajectory.
New Deaths are back to double digits territory
in Canada. The reported number of deaths for July 17 is slightly up at 17 after
"Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of
our July 16 Forecast [ 0 and 53]. The New Forecast for July 18 : Between 0 and
54 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New cases are up to 437 in Canada on July 17, after "Zero Case" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 16 Forecast [0 and 711]. New Forecast for July 18: Between 34 and 744 new cases with 95% confidence. The model now projects a slight upward trajectory.
New Deaths are back to double digits territory in Canada. The reported number of deaths for July 16 is slightly up at 12 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 15 Forecast [0 and 52]. The New Forecast for July 17 : Between 0 and 53 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New cases
are up to 341 in Canada on July 16, after "Zero Case" occurred on
July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 15 Forecast [2 and 715]. New
Forecast for July 17: Between 0 and 711 new cases with 95% confidence. The
model now projects a slight upward trajectory[ps1] .
New Deaths continue to be in single digits
territory in Canada. The reported number of deaths for July 15 is slightly up
at 8 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the
limits of our July 14 Forecast [0 and 54]. The New Forecast for July 16 :
Between 0 and 52 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New cases are down to 331 in
Canada on July 15, after "Zero Case" occurred on July 2. This is well
within the limits of our July 14 Forecast [10 and 724]. New Forecast for July
16: Between 2 and 715 new cases with 95% confidence.
REFERENCES
Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Disclaimer: This article is not
a medical suggestion and should not be referenced to for any medical advice.
Any figures, numbers and dates provided in this section are just
assumptions-based forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that
represent our assumptions and expectations in light of available information at
the time of producing the forecasts. These forecasts, etc., are based on third
party publicly available data, and they involve risks, variables and
uncertainties. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95%, the
actual performance results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no
guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts,
projections or predictive statements contained herein. No decision shall be made based on those
predictions.
Avis de non-responsabilité: cet
article n'est pas une suggestion médicale et ne doit pas être consulté pour un
avis médical. Tous les chiffres, chiffres et dates fournis dans cette section
ne sont que des prévisions fondées sur des hypothèses, des projections et
d'autres déclarations prédictives qui représentent nos hypothèses et attentes à
la lumière des informations disponibles au moment de la production des
prévisions. Ces prévisions, etc., sont basées sur des données de tiers
accessibles au public et impliquent des risques, des variables et des
incertitudes. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions à ce jour
aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux
projetés. Par conséquent, aucune garantie n'est présentée ou implicite quant à
l'exactitude des prévisions, projections ou déclarations prédictives
spécifiques contenues dans ce document. Aucune décision ne doit être prise sur
la base de ces prévisions.
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