TITLE
SUMMARY
OF COVID-19 FORECASTS PRODUCED IN THE SOFTWARE R FOR CANADA FROM AUGUST
1 TO AUGUST 15, 2020
CHAPTER
6
AUGUST
1 TO AUGUST 15
BY:
PATRICK STEPHENSON, M.SC.
AUGUST
16, 2020
This report is a compilation of my Facebook historical daily Forecasts of new cases and deaths in Canada in real-time from information available in the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Research and data: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, and Max Roser. Web development: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, and Jason Crawford.
Chapter 6 of this report provides a summary on the daily Forecasts of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Canada produced in the software R from AUGUST 1 TO 15. We essentially explored two conventional Time-series models available from the library 'forecast' in R: preferentially HoltWinters and alternatively ARIMA. Chapters1, 2, 3 and 5 covering the Time-series from MAY 10 to July 31st are available under the JULY and AUGUST tab.
May the reader be indulgent. New data is extremely important when making projections such as these. That’s why we update our models daily on Facebook based on the new Time-series data we receive. Please consult our Facebook page for more recent daily Forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 . Projections using today’s data is much more valuable than projections from 2-3 days ago. Our ambition to produce COVID-19 daily Forecasts using R for 4 Countries: Canada, USA, Brazil and Haiti has proven to be challenging given the effort required to fully process, review, and vet large amounts of Time-series data alongside implementing Time-series models updates. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95% for Canada, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Please read the Disclaimer at the bottom of the page.
Ce rapport est une compilation de mes prévisions quotidiennes historiques sur Facebook de nouveaux cas et décès au Canada en temps réel à partir des informations dans les series chronologiques disponibles sur Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Recherches et données: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino et Max Roser Développement Web: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, et Jason Crawford.
Le chapitre 6 de ce rapport présente un résumé des prévisions quotidiennes des cas confirmés de COVID-19 et des décès au Canada produits dans le logiciel R du 1er AU 15 AOUT. Nous avons essentiellement exploré deux modèles de séries chronologiques classiques disponibles dans la bibliothèque 'forecast’ de R : préférentiellement HoltWinters et alternativement ARIMA. Les chapitres 1, 2, 3 et 5 couvrant la série chronologique du 10 MAI au 31 juillet sont disponibles sous les onglets Juillet et Août.
Que le lecteur soit indulgent. Les nouvelles données sont extrêmement importantes lors de la réalisation de telles projections. C’est pourquoi nous mettons à jour notre modèle quotidiennement sur Facebook en fonction des nouvelles données chronologiques que nous recevons.Veuillez consulter notre page Facebook pour des prévisions quotidiennes plus récentes:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 Les projections utilisant les données d'aujourd'hui sont bien plus précieuses que les projections d'il y a 2 ou 3 jours. Notre ambition de produire des prévisions quotidiennes COVID-19 en utilisant R pour 4 pays: le Canada, les États-Unis, le Brésil et Haïti s'est avérée difficile étant donné l'effort requis pour traiter, examiner et contrôler de grandes quantités de données chronologiques tout en mettant en œuvre des mises à jour des modèles de série chronologiques. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions pour le Canada à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. SVP lire l’Avis de non-responsabilité au bas de la page. .
THIS PAGE IS IN CONSTRUCTION.
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#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly up to 418 in Canada on August
15, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is
well within the limits of our August 14 Forecast [33 and 756]. New Forecast for
August 16: Between 41 and 763 new cases with 95% confidence. The model no
longer projects a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 14 in Canada is down to 9 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 13
Forecast [ 0 and 49]. The New Forecast for August 15: Between 0 and 49 new
Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly down to 405 in Canada on August
14, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is
well within the limits of our August 13 Forecast [28 and 753]. New Forecast for
August 15: Between 33 and 756 new cases with 95% confidence. The model
continues to project a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 13 in Canada is up to 15 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 12
Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 14: Between 0 and 49 new
Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are up to 423 in Canada on August 13, after
"Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well
within the limits of our August 12 Forecast [14 and 740]. New Forecast for
August 14: Between 28 and 753 new cases with 95% confidence. The model
continues to project a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 12 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 11
Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 13: Between 0 and 46 new
Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 289 in Canada on August 12, after
"Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well
within the limits of our August 11 Forecast [59 and 786]. New Forecast for
August 13: Between 14 and 740 new cases with 95% confidence. The model now
projects a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 11 in Canada is up to 6 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 10
Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 11: Between 0 and 46 new
Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are up to 666 in Canada on August 11, after
"Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well
within the limits of our August 10 Forecast [0 and 666]. New Forecast for
August 12: Between 59 and 786 new cases with 95% confidence. The model now
projects a slight upward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 10 in Canada is down to 5 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 9 Forecast
[ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for August 11: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with
95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly up to 245 in Canada on August
10, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is
well within the limits of our August 9 Forecast [0 and 709]. New Forecast for
August 11: Between 0 and 666 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues
to project a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 9 in Canada is up tot 6 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 8 Forecast
[ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 10: Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with
95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 236 in Canada on August 9, after
"Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well
within the limits of our August 8 Forecast [ 48 and 772]. New Forecast for
August 10: Between 0 and 709 new cases with 95% confidence. The model o
continues to project a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 8 in Canada is steady at 4 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 7 Forecast
[ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 9: Between 0 and 46 new Deaths with
95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly up to 424 in Canada on August 8,
after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well
within the limits of our August 7 Forecast [ 42 and 767]. New Forecast for
August 9: Between 48 and 772 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects
a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 7 in Canada is steady at 4 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 6 Forecast
[ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 8: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with
95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly down to 374 in Canada on August
7, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is
well within the limits of our August 6 Forecast [ 58 and 785 ]. New Forecast
for August 8: Between 42 and 767 new cases with 95% confidence. The model
projects a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for
August 6 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a
second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 5 Forecast
[ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for August 7: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with
95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 395 in Canada on August 6, after
"Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well
within the limits of our August 5 Forecast [ 70 and 799 ]. New Forecast for
August 7: Between 58 and 785 new cases with 95% confidence. The model no longer
projects a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID-19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August
5 in Canada is up to 11 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 4 Forecast [ 0
and 48]. The New Forecast for August 6: Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with 95%
confidence.
#Canada #COVID-19 Covid-19 New cases are drastically up to 760 in Canada on
August 5, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19.
This is slightly above the limits of our August 4 Forecast [ 0 and 630 ]. New
Forecast for August 6: Between 70 and 799. new cases with 95% confidence. The
model no longer projects a slight downward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for August 4 in Canada is down to 2 after "Zero
Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the
limits of our August 3 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for August 5 :
Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to
147 in Canada on August 4, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 3 Forecast [ 0
and 715 ]. New Forecast for August 5: Between 0 and 630 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model still projects a slight downward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for August 3 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero
Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the
limits of our August 2 Forecast [ 0 and 50]. The New Forecast for August 4 :
Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are steady at
285 in Canada on August 3, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 2 Forecast [42
and 762]. New Forecast for August 4 Between 0 and 715 new cases with 95% confidence.
The model projects a slight downward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for August 2 in Canada is steady at 6 after "Zero
Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the
limits of our August 1 Forecast [ 0 and 50]. The New Forecast for August 3 :
Between 0 and 50 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19 New cases are down to
287 in Canada on August 2, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second
time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 1 Forecast [105
and 824]. New Forecast for August 3 Between 42 and 762 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model projects a slight downward trajectory.
The reported number of Covid-19
related deaths for August 1 in Canada is down to 6 after "Zero
Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the
limits of our July 31 Forecast [ 0 and 50]. The New Forecast for August 2 :
Between 0 and 50 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
Covid-19
New cases are up to 513 in Canada on August 1, after "Zero Case"
occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our
July 31 Forecast [78 and 798]. New Forecast for August 2 Between 105 and 824
new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory.
REFERENCES
Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Disclaimer: This article is not a medical suggestion and should not be referenced to for any medical advice. Any figures, numbers and dates provided in this section are just assumptions-based forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent our assumptions and expectations in light of available information at the time of producing the forecasts. These forecasts, etc., are based on third party publicly available data, and they involve risks, variables and uncertainties. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95%, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. No decision shall be made based on those predictions.
Avis de non-responsabilité: cet article n'est pas une suggestion médicale et ne doit pas être consulté pour un avis médical. Tous les chiffres, chiffres et dates fournis dans cette section ne sont que des prévisions fondées sur des hypothèses, des projections et d'autres déclarations prédictives qui représentent nos hypothèses et attentes à la lumière des informations disponibles au moment de la production des prévisions. Ces prévisions, etc., sont basées sur des données de tiers accessibles au public et impliquent des risques, des variables et des incertitudes. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. Par conséquent, aucune garantie n'est présentée ou implicite quant à l'exactitude des prévisions, projections ou déclarations prédictives spécifiques contenues dans ce document.Aucune décision ne doit être prise sur la base de ces prévisions.
