TITLE
SUMMARY
OF COVID-19 FORECASTS PRODUCED IN THE SOFTWARE R FOR CANADA FROM MAY 10 TO JULY
14, 2020
CHAPTER
3
JUNE
1 TO JUNE 14
BY:
PATRICK STEPHENSON, M.SC.
JULY
17, 2020
This report is a compilation of my Facebook historical daily Forecasts of new cases and deaths in Canada in real-time from information available in the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Research and data: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, and Max Roser. Web development: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, and Jason Crawford.
Chapter 3 of this report provides a summary of the daily forecast of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada produced in R software from June 1 to June 14. in R: preferably HoltWinters and alternatively to come.
May the reader be indulgent. New data is extremely important when making projections such as these. That’s why we update our models daily on Facebook based on the new Time-series data we receive. Please consult our Facebook page for more recent daily Forecasts:https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849
Projections using today’s data is much more valuable than projections from 2-3 days ago. Our ambition to produce COVID-19 daily Forecasts using R for 4 Countries: Canada, USA, Brazil and Haiti has proven to be challenging given the effort required to fully process, review, and vet large amounts of Time-series data alongside implementing Time-series models updates. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95% for Canada, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Please read the Disclaimer at the bottom of the page.
Ce rapport est une compilation de mes prévisions quotidiennes historiques sur Facebook de nouveaux cas et décès au Canada en temps réel à partir des informations dans les series chronologiques disponibles sur Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Recherches et données: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino et Max Roser Développement Web: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, et Jason Crawford.
Le chapitre 3 de ce rapport présente un résumé des prévisions quotidiennes des cas confirmés de COVID-19 et des décès au Canada produits dans le logiciel R du 1er juin au 14 juin. en R: préférentiellement HoltWinters et alternativement ARIMA. Le Chapitre 4 couvrant la série chronologique du 10 mai au 31 mai à venir.
Que le lecteur soit indulgent. Les nouvelles données sont extrêmement importantes lors de la réalisation de telles projections. C’est pourquoi nous mettons à jour notre modèle quotidiennement sur Facebook en fonction des nouvelles données chronologiques que nous recevons.Veuillez consulter notre page Facebook pour des prévisions quotidiennes plus récentes:
Les projections utilisant les données d'aujourd'hui sont bien plus précieuses que les projections d'il y a 2 ou 3 jours. Notre ambition de produire des prévisions quotidiennes COVID-19 en utilisant R pour 4 pays: le Canada, les États-Unis, le Brésil et Haïti s'est avérée difficile étant donné l'effort requis pour traiter, examiner et contrôler de grandes quantités de données chronologiques tout en mettant en œuvre des mises à jour des modèles de série chronologiques. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions pour le Canada à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. SVP lire l’Avis de non-responsabilité au bas de la page.
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THIS PAGE IS IN CONSTRUCTION.
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Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada, despite two spikes
on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 14 is steady at 58.
The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and
98. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached
late June.
The reported number of cases in Canada for June 14 is slightly up at
467, well within our June 12 95% Confidence interval [1 and 738] . New Forecast
for June 15: Between 9 and 745 new cases with 95% confidence. The model
continues to project "Zero Case Day" for late June .
Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada, despite two spikes
on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 13 is slightly up
at 55. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is
between 0 and 88. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths"
will be reached mid to late June.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease . An example of a well behave epidemic. The reported
number for June 13 is 413, well within our June 12 95% Confidence interval [25
and 764] . New Forecast for June 14: Between 1 and 738 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model continues to project "Zero Case Day" for late
June .
Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada, despite two spikes
on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 12 has dropped to
34. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0
and 87. The model predicts "Zero Deaths" will be reached mid to late
June.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease . An example of a well behave epidemic. The reported number
for June 12 is 405, well within our June 11 95% Confidence interval [68 and
809] . New Forecast for June 13: Between 25 and 764 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model projects "Zero Case Day" for late June .
Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada, despite two spikes
on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 11 is 63. The
expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 99.
The model predicts "Zero Deaths" will be reached mid to late June.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease . An example of a well behave epidemic. The reported
number for June 11 is 472, well within our June 10 95% Confidence interval [97
and 841] . New Forecast for June 12: Between 68 and 809 new cases with 95%
confidence. The model projects "Zero Case Day" for late June .
Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada, despite two spikes
on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 10 is 67, up from
its dramatical drop on June 8. The expected number of new deaths per day for
the next 19 days is between 0 and 97. The model predicts "Zero
Deaths" will be reached mid to late June.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model continue
to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30 respectively. An
example of a well behave epidemic. The reported number for June 10 has dropped
to 409, well within our June 9 95% Confidence interval [179 and 924] . New
Forecast for June 11: Between 97 and 841 new cases with 95% confidence.
Corona related deaths are expected to decrease in Canada, despite two
spikes on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 9 still
stays low after a dramatical decrease on June 8. The expected number of new
deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 98. The model predicts
"Zero Deaths" will be reached mid to late June.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in
Canada predicted by the model continue to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906)
on May 29 and 30 respectively. The reported number for June 9 is 545, well
within our June 8 95% Confidence interval [224 and 971] . New Forecast for June
10: Between 179 and 924 new cases with 95% confidence.
Corona related deaths are expected to decrease in Canada, despite two
spikes on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 8 has
dramatically decrease to 27. The expected number of new deaths per day for the
next 19 days is between 0 and 121.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30
respectively. The reported number for June 8 is 642, well within our June 7 95%
Confidence interval [237 and 986] . New Forecast for June 9: Between 224 and
971 new cases with 95% confidence.
Corona related deaths are expected to decrease in Canada, despite two
spikes on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 7 is 70. The
expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and
184.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30
respectively. The reported number for June 7 is 722, well within our June 6 95%
Confidence interval [213 and 964] . New Forecast for June 8: Between 237 and
986 new cases with 95% confidence. The model predicts the epidemic will be
practically over (reaching 0 new cases) by mid-June.
Corona related deaths are expected to decrease in Canada, despite two
spikes on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 6 is 66. The
expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and
214.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30
respectively. The reported number for June 6 is 609, well within our June 5 95%
Confidence interval [248 and 1001] . New Forecast for June 7: Between 213 and
964 new cases with 95% confidence. The model predicts the epidemic will be
practically over (reaching 0 new cases) by mid-June.
Corona related deaths are expected to decrease in Canada, despite a
spike on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 5 is 139. The
model forecasts a slight upward trend for the next 19 days; however we believe
this to be temporary. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19
days is between 0 and 268.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30
respectively. The reported number for June 5 is 641, well within our June 4
[284 and 1040] 95% Confidence interval. New Forecast for June 6: Between 248
and 1001 new cases with 95% confidence. The model predicts the epidemic will be
practically over (reaching 0 new cases) by mid-June.
As expected, corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada,
despite a spike on June 1. The reported number of deaths on June 4 is 103. The
model forecasts a slight downward trend for the next 19 days. The expected
number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 198.
As expected, covid-19 new cases in Canada predicted by the model
continue to decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30
respectively. The reported number for June 4 is 675, well within our June 3
[321 and 1079] 95% Confidence interval. New Forecast for June 5: Between 284
and 1040. new cases with 95% confidence. The model predicts the epidemic will
be practically over (reaching 0 new cases) by mid-June.
No Forecast for June 3.
As expected, covid-19 new cases predicted by the model continue to
decrease despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30 respectively. The
reported number for June 3 is 705, well within our June 2 [394 and 1156] 95%
Confidence interval. New Forecast for next reporting date: Between 321 and 1079
new cases with 95% confidence.
As expected, covid-19 new cases predicted by the model continue to
decrease in Canada, despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30 respectively.
The reported number for June 2 is 758, well within our May 31 95% Confidence
interval [394 and 1157]. New Forecast for June 3: Between 362 and 1122 new
cases with 95% confidence.
As expected, covid-19 new cases predicted by the model continue to
decrease in Canada, despite spikes (993 and 906) on May 29 and 30 respectively.
The reported number for June 1 is 757, well within our May 31 95% Confidence
interval [445 and 1210]. New Forecast for June 2: Between 394 and 1157 new
cases with 95% confidence.
REFERENCES
Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]
Disclaimer: This article is not a medical suggestion and should not be referenced to for any medical advice. Any figures, numbers and dates provided in this section are just assumptions-based forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent our assumptions and expectations in light of available information at the time of producing the forecasts. These forecasts, etc., are based on third party publicly available data, and they involve risks, variables and uncertainties. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95%, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. No decision shall be made based on those predictions.
Avis de non-responsabilité: cet article n'est pas une suggestion médicale et ne doit pas être consulté pour un avis médical. Tous les chiffres, chiffres et dates fournis dans cette section ne sont que des prévisions fondées sur des hypothèses, des projections et d'autres déclarations prédictives qui représentent nos hypothèses et attentes à la lumière des informations disponibles au moment de la production des prévisions. Ces prévisions, etc., sont basées sur des données de tiers accessibles au public et impliquent des risques, des variables et des incertitudes. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. Par conséquent, aucune garantie n'est présentée ou implicite quant à l'exactitude des prévisions, projections ou déclarations prédictives spécifiques contenues dans ce document.Aucune décision ne doit être prise sur la base de ces prévisions.
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