CHAPTER 2 OF SUMMARY OF COVID-19 FORECASTS FOR CANADA PRODUCED IN SOFTWARE R (JUNE 15 TO JUNE 29)

TITLE

SUMMARY OF COVID-19 FORECASTS PRODUCED IN THE SOFTWARE R FOR CANADA FROM MAY 10 TO JULY 14, 2020

 

CHAPTER 2

JUNE 15 TO JUNE 29

 

 

BY: PATRICK STEPHENSON, M.SC.

 

 

 

 

 

JULY 16, 2020

 

 This report is a compilation of my Facebook historical daily Forecasts of new cases and deaths in Canada in real-time from information available in the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus 

Research and data: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, and Max Roser. Web development: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, and Jason Crawford.

Chapter 2 of this report provides a summary on the daily Forecasts of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Canada produced in the software R from JUNE 15 TO JUNE 29. We essentially explored two conventional Time-series models available from the library 'forecast' in R: preferentially HoltWinters and alternatively ARIMA. Chapters 3 to 4 covering the Time-series from May 10 to June 14 to come.

May the reader be indulgent. New data is extremely important when making projections such as these. That’s why we update our models daily on Facebook based on the new Time-series data we receive. Please consult our Facebook page for more recent daily Forecasts: 

https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 . Projections using today’s data is much more valuable than projections from 2-3 days ago. Our ambition to produce COVID-19 daily Forecasts using R for 4 Countries: Canada, USA, Brazil and Haiti has proven to be challenging given the effort required to fully process, review, and vet large amounts of Time-series data alongside implementing Time-series models updates. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95% for Canada, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Please read the Disclaimer at the bottom of the page.

Ce rapport est une compilation de mes prévisions quotidiennes historiques sur Facebook de nouveaux cas et décès au Canada en temps réel à partir des informations dans les series chronologiques disponibles sur Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus 

Recherches et données: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino et Max Roser Développement Web: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, et Jason Crawford.

Le chapitre 2 de ce rapport présente un résumé des prévisions quotidiennes des cas confirmés de COVID-19 et des décès au Canada produits dans le logiciel R du 15  AU 29 JUIN. Nous avons essentiellement exploré deux modèles de séries chronologiques classiques disponibles dans la bibliothèque 'forecast’ de R : préférentiellement HoltWinters et alternativement ARIMA. Les Chapitres 3 à 4 couvrant la série chronologique du 10 mai au 14 juin sont à venir.

Que le lecteur soit indulgent. Les nouvelles données sont extrêmement importantes lors de la réalisation de telles projections. C’est pourquoi nous mettons à jour notre modèle quotidiennement sur Facebook en fonction des nouvelles données chronologiques que nous recevons.Veuillez consulter notre page Facebook pour des prévisions quotidiennes plus récentes:

 https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 Les projections utilisant les données d'aujourd'hui sont bien plus précieuses que les projections d'il y a 2 ou 3 jours. Notre ambition de produire des prévisions quotidiennes COVID-19 en utilisant R pour 4 pays: le Canada, les États-Unis, le Brésil et Haïti s'est avérée difficile étant donné l'effort requis pour traiter, examiner et contrôler de grandes quantités de données chronologiques tout en mettant en œuvre des mises à jour des modèles de série chronologiques. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions pour le Canada à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. SVP lire l’Avis de non-responsabilité au bas de la page.

.

Data Source:  https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data

THIS PAGE IS IN CONSTRUCTION. 

_______________________________________________

 

 

Corona related deaths is down to single digits in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 29 is 6. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 69 The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached by early July or before.

The reported number of cases in Canada for June 29 is slightly down to 218, well within our June 28 95% Confidence interval [0 and 569] . New Forecast for June 30: Between 0 and 552 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to postpone "Zero Case Day" from late June to mid July.

 

 Corona related deaths is down to single digits in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 28 is 8. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 73 The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached by early July or before.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 28 is slightly up to 238, well within our June 27 95% Confidence interval [0 and 584] . New Forecast for June 29: Between 0 and 569 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to postpone "Zero Case Day" from late June to mid July.

 

 Corona related deaths is down to single digits in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 27 is 4. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 78 The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached by early July or before.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 27 is down to 172 well within our June 26 95% Confidence interval [ 0 and 623] . New Forecast for June 28: Between 0 and 584 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to mid July.

 

 

Corona related deaths is slightly up in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 25 is 30. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 94 The model predicts that "Zero Deaths" will be reached early July or before.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 25 is down to 279 well within our June 24 95% Confidence interval [ 0 and 644] . New Forecast for June 26: Between 0 and 623 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early to mid July.

 

 Corona related deaths is slightly up in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 24 is 18. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 87 The model predicts that "Zero Deaths" will be reached early July or before.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 24 is steady at 326 well within our June 23 95% Confidence interval [ 0 and 649] . New Forecast for June 25: Between 0 and 644 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early to mid July.

 

 

 Corona related deaths is down to single digits in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 23 is drastically down at 6. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 94 The model predicts that "Zero Deaths" will be reached early July or before.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 23 is down again at 311 well within our June 22 95% Confidence interval [0 and 666] . New Forecast for June 24: Between 0 and 649 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early to mid July.

Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 22 is drastically down at 20. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 120 The model predicts that "Zero Deaths" is postponed from early to mid July.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 22 is down at 318 well within our June 19 95% Confidence interval [0 and 690] . New Forecast for June 23: Between 0 and 666 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early July.

 

 Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 21 is up at 64. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 140 The model now predicts that "Zero Deaths" is postponed from early to mid July.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 21 is slightly down at 390, well within our June 19 95% Confidence interval [0 and 683] . New Forecast for June 22: Between 0 and 690 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early July.

 

 Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 20 is steady at 46. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 113 The model now predicts that "Zero Deaths" is postponed from late June to early July.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 20 is slightly up at 409, well within our June 19 95% Confidence interval [0 and 665] . New Forecast for June 21: Between 0 and 683 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early July .

 

 Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 19 is slightly up at 46. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 102. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached late June.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 19 is slightly down at 367, well within our June 18 95% Confidence interval [0 and 667] . New Forecast for June 19: Between 0 and 665 new cases with 95% confidence. The model postpones "Zero Case Day" from late June to early July .

 

 Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 18 is slightly up at 41. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 90. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached late June.

 

The reported number of cases in Canada for June 18 is up at 386, well within our June 17 95% Confidence interval [0 and 659] . New Forecast for June 19: Between 0 and 667 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to project "Zero Case Day" for late June .

 

 Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 17 is slightly up at 39. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 84. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached late June.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 17 is down at 320, well within our June 16 95% Confidence interval [0 and 690] . New Forecast for June 18: Between 0 and 659 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to project "Zero Case Day" for late June .

 

 Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada. The reported number of deaths on June 16 is down at 29. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 82. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached late June.

 

The reported number of cases in Canada for June 16 is down at 360, well within our June 15 95% Confidence interval [0 and 715] . New Forecast for June 17: Between 0 and 690 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to project "Zero Case Day" for late June .

 

 

Corona related deaths continue to decrease in Canada, despite two spikes on June 1 and June 5. The reported number of deaths on June 15 is down at 39. The expected number of new deaths per day for the next 19 days is between 0 and 93. The model continues to predict that "Zero Deaths" will be reached late June.

 The reported number of cases in Canada for June 15 is down at 377, well within our June 14 95% Confidence interval [9 and 745] . New Forecast for June 16: Between 0 and 715 new cases with 95% confidence. The model continues to project "Zero Case Day" for late June .

REFERENCES

Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) - "Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]

Disclaimer: This article is not a medical suggestion and should not be referenced to for any medical advice. Any figures, numbers and dates provided in this section are just assumptions-based forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent our assumptions and expectations in light of available information at the time of producing the forecasts. These forecasts, etc., are based on third party publicly available data, and they involve risks, variables and uncertainties. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95%, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. No decision shall be made based on those predictions.

Avis de non-responsabilité: cet article n'est pas une suggestion médicale et ne doit pas être consulté pour un avis médical. Tous les chiffres, chiffres et dates fournis dans cette section ne sont que des prévisions fondées sur des hypothèses, des projections et d'autres déclarations prédictives qui représentent nos hypothèses et attentes à la lumière des informations disponibles au moment de la production des prévisions. Ces prévisions, etc., sont basées sur des données de tiers accessibles au public et impliquent des risques, des variables et des incertitudes. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. Par conséquent, aucune garantie n'est présentée ou implicite quant à l'exactitude des prévisions, projections ou déclarations prédictives spécifiques contenues dans ce document.Aucune décision ne doit être prise sur la base de ces prévisions.