Mr. Stephenson has led
significant initiatives throughout his career, with experience and partnerships
spanning multiple Canadian government departments, the private sector and international
organizations, including the U.S EPA. He has led projects in research, policy and
regulatory issues.
In 2002 Mr. Stephenson joined Health Canada where he served in
several positions, including Senior Scientific Evaluator until 2014 when he
moved to the private sector as independent Regulatory Consultant.
Mr. Stephenson is a graduate of McGill University, where he earned a Bachelor of Science (93), followed by a Master of Science (95). Mr. Stephenson is a life long learner and continues to take advantage of opportunities to broaden his knowledge in different areas of interest including science and statistics.
Distinguishing the #signal from the #noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.” Nate Silver
|
TITLE SUMMARY OF
COVID-19 DAILY FORECASTS PRODUCED IN THE SOFTWARE R FOR CANADA FROM MAY 10 TO
AUGUST 31, 2020
CHAPTER
1 JUNE
30 TO JULY 14
BY:
PATRICK STEPHENSON, M.SC.
JULY
16, 2020 |
This report is a compilation of my
Facebook historical daily Forecasts of new cases and deaths in Canada in
real-time from information available in the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Research and data: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban
Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald,
Charlie Giattino, and Max Roser. Web development: Breck Yunits, Ernst van
Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, and Jason Crawford.
Chapter 1 of this report provides a summary on the daily Forecasts of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Canada produced in the software R from JUNE 30 TO JULY 14. We essentially explored two conventional Time-series models available from the library 'forecast' in R: preferentially HoltWinters and alternatively ARIMA. Chapters 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7 covering the Time-series from June 1 to August 31st are available under the August and September tabs.
May the reader be indulgent. New
data is extremely important when making projections such as these. That’s why
we update our models daily on Facebook based on the new Time-series data we receive. Please consult our Facebook page for more recent daily Forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 . Projections using today’s data is much more valuable than projections from 2-3
days ago. Our ambition to produce COVID-19 daily Forecasts using R for 4
Countries: Canada, USA, Brazil and Haiti has proven to be challenging given the
effort required to fully process, review, and vet large amounts of Time-series
data alongside implementing Time-series models updates. While our Forecast performance to date has been over
95% for Canada, the actual performance results may differ from those projected.
Please read the Disclaimer at the bottom of the page.
Ce rapport est une compilation de mes prévisions quotidiennes
historiques sur Facebook de nouveaux cas et décès au Canada en temps réel à
partir des informations dans les series chronologiques disponibles sur Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Recherches et données: Hannah
Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell,
Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino et Max Roser Développement Web: Breck
Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, et
Jason Crawford.
Le chapitre 1 de ce rapport présente un résumé des prévisions quotidiennes des cas confirmés de COVID-19 et des décès au Canada produits dans le logiciel R du 30 JUIN AU 14 JUILLET. Nous avons essentiellement exploré deux modèles de séries chronologiques classiques disponibles dans la bibliothèque 'forecast’ de R : préférentiellement HoltWinters et alternativement ARIMA. Les chapitres 2, 3, 5, 6 et 7 couvrant la série chronologique du 1er juin au 31 Aout sont disponibles sous les onglets Août et Septembre.
Que le lecteur soit indulgent. Les nouvelles données sont extrêmement
importantes lors de la réalisation de telles projections. C’est pourquoi nous
mettons à jour notre modèle quotidiennement sur Facebook en fonction des nouvelles données
chronologiques que nous recevons.Veuillez consulter
notre page Facebook pour des prévisions quotidiennes plus récentes:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 Les projections utilisant les données
d'aujourd'hui sont bien plus précieuses que les projections d'il y a 2 ou 3
jours. Notre ambition de produire des prévisions quotidiennes COVID-19 en
utilisant R pour 4 pays: le Canada, les États-Unis, le Brésil et Haïti s'est
avérée difficile étant donné l'effort requis pour traiter, examiner et
contrôler de grandes quantités de données chronologiques tout en mettant en
œuvre des mises à jour des modèles de série chronologiques. Bien que la performance de nos
prévisions pour le Canada à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de
performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. SVP lire l’Avis de
non-responsabilité au bas de la page.
.
THIS PAGE IS IN CONSTRUCTION.
New Deaths are back to
single digits territory in Canada. The reported number of deaths for July 14 is
slightly down at 7 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is
well within the limits of our July 13 Forecast [0 and 55]. The New Forecast for
July 15 : Between 0 and 54 new Deaths with 95% confidence
.
New Deaths continue to be in double digits territory in Canada. The reported number of deaths for July 13 is slightly down at 10 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 12 Forecast [0 and 57]. The New Forecast for July 14 : Between 0 and 55 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New Deaths continue to be in double digits territory in Canada. The
reported number of deaths for July 12 is steady at 14 after "Zero
Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 10
Forecast [0 and 59]. The New Forecast for July 13 : Between 0 and 57 new Deaths
with 95% confidence.
New Deaths are back to double digits territory in Canada. The reported
number of deaths for July 9 is 26 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on
July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 8 Forecast [0 and 57]. The
New Forecast for July 10 : Between 0 and 61 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New cases are down to 232 in Canada on July 8 after "Zero
Case" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 7
Forecast CI [0 and 659]. New Forecast for July 9: Between 0 and 630 new cases
with 95% confidence.
New Deaths are back to single digits territory. The reported number of deaths for July 7 is 9 after "Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 6 Forecast [0 and 59]. The New Forecast for July 8: Between 0 and 57 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
New cases are down to 226 in Canada on July 5 after "Zero
Case" occurred on July 2. This is well within the limits of our July 4
Forecast [0 and 682]. New Forecast for July 6: Between 0 and 642 new cases with
95% confidence.
New Deaths are still relatively high in Canada on July 4 after
"Zero Deaths" occurred on July 2. The reported number of Deaths is 21
for July 4. This is well within the limits of our July 3 Forecast [0 and 65].
The New Forecast for July 5 remains unchanged: Between 0 and 65 new Deaths with
95% confidence.
Immense surprise, "Zero
Death" has finally arrived in Canada while the model was postponing it for
later in July. Corona related deaths was down to single digits in Canada, however
it peaked to 44 on June 30. The Confidence interval for the July 1st Forecast
was between 0 and 58 new deaths. The model was postponing "Zero
Deaths" from early to mid July. New Forecast for July 2: Between 0 and 54
new Deaths with 95% Confidence
Corona related deaths was down to
single digits in Canada, however it peaked to 44 on June 30. The Confidence
interval for the July 1st Forecast is between 0 and 58 new deaths. The model
now postpones "Zero Deaths" from early to mid July.
REFERENCES
Disclaimer: This article is not a medical suggestion and should
not be referenced to for any medical advice. Any figures, numbers and dates
provided in this section are just assumptions-based forecasts, projections and
other predictive statements that represent our assumptions and expectations in
light of available information at the time of producing the forecasts. These
forecasts, etc., are based on third party publicly available data, and they
involve risks, variables and uncertainties. While our Forecast performance to
date has been over 95%, the actual performance results may differ from those
projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy
of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. No decision shall be made based on those
predictions.
Avis de
non-responsabilité: cet
article n'est pas une suggestion médicale et ne doit pas être consulté pour un
avis médical. Tous les chiffres, chiffres et dates fournis dans cette section
ne sont que des prévisions fondées sur des hypothèses, des projections et
d'autres déclarations prédictives qui représentent nos hypothèses et attentes à
la lumière des informations disponibles au moment de la production des
prévisions. Ces prévisions, etc., sont basées sur des données de tiers
accessibles au public et impliquent des risques, des variables et des
incertitudes. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions à ce jour
aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux
projetés. Par conséquent, aucune garantie n'est présentée ou implicite quant à
l'exactitude des prévisions, projections ou déclarations prédictives
spécifiques contenues dans ce document.Aucune décision ne doit être prise sur
la base de ces prévisions.
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