TITLE
SUMMARY OF COVID-19 FORECASTS
PRODUCED IN THE SOFTWARE R FOR CANADA FROM AUGUST 16 TO AUGUST 31, 2020
CHAPTER 7
AUGUST 16 TO AUGUST 31
BY: PATRICK STEPHENSON, M.SC.
SEPTEMBER 4, 2020
This report is a compilation of my Facebook historical daily Forecasts of new cases and deaths in Canada in real-time from information available in the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Research and data: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino, and Max Roser. Web development: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, and Jason Crawford.
Chapter 7 of this report provides a summary on the daily Forecasts of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Canada produced in the software R from AUGUST 16 TO 31. We essentially explored two conventional Time-series models available from the library 'forecast' in R: preferentially HoltWinters and alternatively ARIMA. Chapters 1, 2, 3 , 5 and 6 covering the Time-series from MAY 10 to August 15 are available under the JULY and AUGUST tab.
May the reader be indulgent. New data is extremely important when making projections such as these. That’s why we update our models daily on Facebook based on the new Time-series data we receive. Please consult our Facebook page for more recent daily Forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 . Projections using today’s data is much more valuable than projections from 2-3 days ago. Our ambition to produce COVID-19 daily Forecasts using R for 4 Countries: Canada, USA, Brazil and Haiti has proven to be challenging given the effort required to fully process, review, and vet large amounts of Time-series data alongside implementing Time-series models updates. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95% for Canada, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Please read the Disclaimer at the bottom of the page.
Ce rapport est une compilation de mes prévisions quotidiennes historiques sur Facebook de nouveaux cas et décès au Canada en temps réel à partir des informations dans les series chronologiques disponibles sur Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Recherches et données: Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Diana Beltekian, Edouard Mathieu, Joe Hasell, Bobbie Macdonald, Charlie Giattino et Max Roser Développement Web: Breck Yunits, Ernst van Woerden, Daniel Gavrilov, Matthieu Bergel, Shahid Ahmad, et Jason Crawford.
Le chapitre 7 de ce rapport présente un résumé des prévisions quotidiennes des cas confirmés de COVID-19 et des décès au Canada produits dans le logiciel R du 16 AU 31 AOUT. Nous avons essentiellement exploré deux modèles de séries chronologiques classiques disponibles dans la bibliothèque 'forecast’ de R : préférentiellement HoltWinters et alternativement ARIMA. Les chapitres 1, 2, 3, 5 et 6 couvrant la série chronologique du 10 MAI au 15 Aout sont disponibles sous les onglets Juillet et Août.
Que le lecteur soit indulgent. Les nouvelles données sont extrêmement importantes lors de la réalisation de telles projections. C’est pourquoi nous mettons à jour notre modèle quotidiennement sur Facebook en fonction des nouvelles données chronologiques que nous recevons.Veuillez consulter notre page Facebook pour des prévisions quotidiennes plus récentes:
https://www.facebook.com/pat.stephenson.9849 Les projections utilisant les données d'aujourd'hui sont bien plus précieuses que les projections d'il y a 2 ou 3 jours. Notre ambition de produire des prévisions quotidiennes COVID-19 en utilisant R pour 4 pays: le Canada, les États-Unis, le Brésil et Haïti s'est avérée difficile étant donné l'effort requis pour traiter, examiner et contrôler de grandes quantités de données chronologiques tout en mettant en œuvre des mises à jour des modèles de série chronologiques. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions pour le Canada à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. SVP lire l’Avis de non-responsabilité au bas de la page.
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#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 31 in Canada is down to 4 This is well within the limits of our August 30 Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for September 1: Between 0 and 45 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 267 in Canada on August 31. This well within the limits of our August 30 Forecast [58 and 784]. New Forecast for September 1: Between 8 and 734 new cases with 95% confidence. The model now projects a slight downward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 30 in Canada is down to 5 This is well within the limits of our August 29 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 31: Between 0 and 46 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 315 in Canada on August 30. This well within the limits of our August 29 Forecast [102 and 828]. New Forecast for August 31: Between 58 and 784 new cases with 95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 29 in Canada is down to 6 This is well within the limits of our August 28 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 30: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly up to 510 in Canada on August 29. This well within the limits of our August 28 Forecast [ 74 and 802]. New Forecast for August 30: Between 102 and 828 new cases with 95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 28 in Canada is up to 8 This is well within the limits of our August 27 Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 29: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly down to 431 in Canada on August 28. This well within the limits of our August 27 Forecast [ 71 and 800]. New Forecast for August 29: Between 74 and 802 new cases with 95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 27 in Canada is down to 4. This is well within the limits of our August 26 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 28: Between 0 and 46 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are up to 448 in Canada on August 27. This well within the limits of our August 26 Forecast [ 59 and 790]. New Forecast for August 28: Between 71 and 800 new cases with 95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 26 in Canada is down to 7. This is well within the limits of our August 25 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 27: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are drastically down to 322 in Canada on August 26. This well within the limits of our August 25 Forecast [100 and 831]. New Forecast for August 27: Between 59 and 790 new cases with 95% confidence. The model still projects a slight upward trajectory.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 25 in Canada is up to 10. This is well within the limits of our August 24 Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 26: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are drastically up to 751 in Canada on August 25. This is slightly above the limits of our August 24 Forecast [0 and 693]. New Forecast for August 26: Between 100 and 831 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 24 in Canada is down to 2. This is well within the limits of our August 23 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for August 25: Between 0 and 46 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are slightly up to 267 in Canada on August 24. This is well within the limits of our August 23 Forecast [2 and 729]. New Forecast for August 25: Between 0 and 693 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight downward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 23 in Canada is down to 7 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 22 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for August 24: Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 257 in Canada on August 23, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 22 Forecast [54 and 781]. New Forecast for August 24: Between 2 and 729 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight downward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 22 in Canada is up to 10 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 21 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 23: Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are up to 499 in Canada on August 22, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 21 Forecast [ 14 and 742]. New Forecast for August 23: Between 54 and 781 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 21 in Canada is up to 5 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 20 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 22: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 20 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 19 Forecast [ 0 and 48]. The New Forecast for August 21: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are up to 336 in Canada on August 20, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 19 Forecast [ 32 and 762]. New Forecast for August 21: Between 13 and 742 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight downward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 19 in Canada is up to 13 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 18 Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 20: Between 0 and 48 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are drastically down to 282 in Canada on August 19, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 18 Forecast [ 84 and 815]. New Forecast for August 20: Between 32 and 762 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 18 in Canada is up to 6 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 17 Forecast [ 0 and 46]. The New Forecast for August 19: Between 0 and 46 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are drastically up to 785 in Canada on August 18, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is slightly above the limits of our August 17 Forecast [0 and 649]. New Forecast for August 19: Between 84 and 815 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight upward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 17 in Canada is down to 2 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 16 Forecast [ 0 and 47]. The New Forecast for August 18: Between 0 and 46 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 198 in Canada on August 17, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 16 Forecast [0 and 705]. New Forecast for August 18: Between 0 and 649 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight downward trajectory again.
#Canada #COVID19 The reported number of Covid-19 related deaths for August 16 in Canada is down to 4 after "Zero Deaths" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 15 Forecast [ 0 and 49]. The New Forecast for August 17: Between 0 and 47 new Deaths with 95% confidence.
#Canada #COVID19 New cases are down to 237 in Canada on August 16, after "Zero Case" occurred for a second time on July 19. This is well within the limits of our August 15 Forecast [41 and 763]. New Forecast for August 17: Between 0 and 705 new cases with 95% confidence. The model projects a slight downward trajectory again.
REFERENCES
Disclaimer: This article is not a medical suggestion and should not be referenced to for any medical advice. Any figures, numbers and dates provided in this section are just assumptions-based forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent our assumptions and expectations in light of available information at the time of producing the forecasts. These forecasts, etc., are based on third party publicly available data, and they involve risks, variables and uncertainties. While our Forecast performance to date has been over 95%, the actual performance results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. No decision shall be made based on those predictions.
Avis de non-responsabilité: cet article n'est pas une suggestion médicale et ne doit pas être consulté pour un avis médical. Tous les chiffres, chiffres et dates fournis dans cette section ne sont que des prévisions fondées sur des hypothèses, des projections et d'autres déclarations prédictives qui représentent nos hypothèses et attentes à la lumière des informations disponibles au moment de la production des prévisions. Ces prévisions, etc., sont basées sur des données de tiers accessibles au public et impliquent des risques, des variables et des incertitudes. Bien que la performance de nos prévisions à ce jour aient dépassé 95%, les résultats de performance réels peuvent différer de ceux projetés. Par conséquent, aucune garantie n'est présentée ou implicite quant à l'exactitude des prévisions, projections ou déclarations prédictives spécifiques contenues dans ce document.Aucune décision ne doit être prise sur la base de ces prévisions.
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